Delivery and execution
Scoping & Estimation
4 lessons · ~23 min total
01
Estimates are about uncertainty, not effort
~6 minGive estimates that carry information about what you do not yet know.
Key takeaways
- A single-number estimate hides how uncertain you are and why
- Name the condition that decides which end of the range you land on
- Padding a number keeps it uninformative while also making it unaccountable
02
Break work down until it is boring
~6 minDecompose work far enough that the remaining uncertainty is visible rather than averaged away.
Key takeaways
- Split work until each item fits in one sentence a colleague could act on
- An item you cannot describe is an unexplored region, not a task
- Decomposition is for finding the dangerous piece, not for adding up numbers
03
Negotiate scope, not dates
~6 minRespond to an impossible deadline by changing what gets built rather than by promising harder.
Key takeaways
- When the date is fixed, scope is the variable that remains
- Offer versions with named cuts and a recommendation, not a verdict
- Silent quality cuts remove the tradeoff from the person entitled to make it
04
Re-forecast out loud
~5 minUpdate an estimate as you learn, so the plan tracks reality instead of the original guess.
Key takeaways
- An estimate is made with the least information you will ever have
- Report a changed forecast the day you believe it, not when it becomes undeniable
- Waiting to attempt recovery spends the days that made the alternatives possible
Try a sample check
A sample from the Scoping & Estimation track. The real checks unlock with an account.
Scoping & Estimation
A PM wants one number for the search migration. It is three weeks if the existing index can be reused, six if it has to be rebuilt, and nobody has checked which. What do you give them?
Start Scoping & Estimation.
Your first lesson takes five minutes, and you can do it right now without an account.